Carmack for Congress
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"Protect & Defend the Constitution"
    Join with me

    Help me to save the ship of state.

    It is through our economic strength that we raise our standard of living.  

    We have been the beacon of freedom and liberty recognized and envied by the world.  
    Now we are the last bastion of liberty for mankind.  
    Where else are you going to go?  

    We have been the economic engine driving the planet for ~100 years.  
    I believe that we can revive the nations economy through the historically proven method of
    cutting taxes, regulation and spending.  Government cannot solve our problems,
    government is the problem.  I refer of course to Regan but also to the Harding and
    Coolidge administrations that led to the Roaring Twenties.  
    Reagan's inaugural address 30 years ago speaks of debt, deficits and spending.
    And, that was an extension of the argument that he made in the 60's; that government is
    the problem.  My point here is that there is a proven way out of our current economic
    situation.  

    I will support Bohner and  Ryan on house finance committee to pass this type of legislation
    and de-fund and de-construct the economically unsound legislation.  

    In fact I have made the suggestion to privatize the social security system and follow the
    example of the three counties in Texas.  They opted out of the system when the Johnson
    Administration put the contributions in the general revenue fund.  Those workers who
    started in the private system are now retiring with salaries greater than they were making
    in their peak earning years.  And, they have a 7 figure nest egg that they can pass on to
    their heirs.  All of this done locally, the money never left the county.  The fund manager
    used the money to buy county bonds at the market rate and got a discount because they
    did not have to go through the New York exchange.  

The result is that the party coalition under the leadership of Paul Ryan on the house finance committee is
now prominently featuring social security privatization as a sign post on his "
road to recovery" plan.  It is a
timid start of only 1/3 of the social security contributions per individual; but it is a start in the right
direction.  I look forward to committee assignments and more detailed discussions when I get to DC.  

It is about the economy
Our growing national debt is increasing so rapidly I can't keep track of it.
The debt / GDP ratio just passed 90% last week.  (05/29/10)
And that is not counting Freddie, Fanny and our unfunded liabilities.  
We are totally bankrupt, deep in debt and sinking faster than ever.   

That is significant because 90% is generally accepted as the point of no return for national economies.  
The interest on the debt begins to consume the GDP.
The end result is currency collapse a la 1914 Germany.  There are many modern examples that bring us
to the PIIGS; Portugal, Italy, Ireland, Greece and Spain.  
Strict adherence to Keynesian economic policies had led to a net negative national productivity.  We are
caught in the same trap of debt to GDP



































The GDP numbers have been so manipulated that they are not usable and the estimates are not
believable.  They are intended only to placate the masses.  The argument about the economy is now
heated.  The numbers are the stimulus result of unemployment benefits, cash for clunkers, tax credits for
1st time home buyers, etc.  The corporate media spin the mix and it sounds good until you analyze the
numbers.  Profits are up but sales are down.  If we can only keep it going until November?   

As you look at this chart be aware of the size of debt and the economy are approaching $13T.  And, then
consider that the debt does not include this years $1.3T deficit or the $6T in Fanny and Freddie
mortgages.  It is my understanding that the Fed has repackaged these mortgages as security for US
bonds and the full faith and credit of the USA are literally on the line.  

Now I get it!  Too big to fail means that we default on our bonds.  That would explain why so much of the
TARP bailout funds went to other nation's central banks.

It appears that the intent is to inflate the currency to the point that those mortgages are no longer under
water.  What will happen if commercial real estate collapses in the coming months as expected?  
Won't that take residential prices down reducing the effect?  
Do you think that more printing presses are the solution?

It has been apparent for decades that the politicians are using the "inflation tax" to fund our deficit and try
to pay for the unfunded liabilities of social security and medicare.   Grow the economy by increasing the
population to increase revenue?  I think that there is something fundamentally wrong with this model.
They accept 3% deficit as a goal and it turns out to be a minimum.  This year it is more like 10%.  
It ain't working!  We need an alternative; quick.

We are on the precipice now looking into the abyss.  The end is near.  
Many have seen this economic
catastrophe coming for decades.

My vision of the future is grim.  Even as I try to be rational in assessing the current circumstances and
reaching for a logical conclusion; I still sound like an alarmist.  
If I go any further I will degenerate into a rant.  But, I am not alone.  
I have been wrong in the past, but usually only about the timing.
There is a reason why I live on a boat.  "Fish heads and rice; What else could be so nice"

You will be able to keep your existing health care plan but your employer won't be able to afford it.  
That will likely not be high on your priority list.  
Price inflation will limit mobility and drive the population to the cities.  
The inflation tax affects those on the lower end first.  
The price of beans has tripled in the last few years and I fear that is only the beginning.  
Greece is only a vision of our future.  
Only, it will be much worse here.  

The will be a call for the government to restore order and take care of the people.

And, the Constitution will be lost to history.

I have been recommending to sell stock market assets and move funds into real property in preparation
for an increase in inflation and the push into the collective.   
Some may remember that I said "sell in May and go away"; last year.  
It took me a while to figure out what the 5 big banks were doing with that $800B stimulus.  
They were cleaning up their balance sheets.  How's yours?

When I say "real property" I mean hard assets that are inflation hedges.  
Real estate and precious metals fit in this category as do farm equipment and canning jars.  
For those who are fortunate enough to have some savings, it is a warning to get out of cash and prepare
for a "change".   Carry a balance sufficient for routine shopping and sufficient cash on hand in the event
of a bank "holiday".  Use a bank safety deposit box if you are well prepared.  
Dried beans, rice and cooking oil should be stocked for extended storage, as a minimum,  

Self sufficiency on a small plot of land would be the ideal.  But, it will only delay the eventuality.  Some
taxing authority will eventually take your land and it will become part of the collective.   The farther away
from the population centers you are the longer it will take for them to get you.

I am saying it again this year; "sell in May and go away".  
The stock market is still an indicator of sorts.  
I think the big banks through balancing their books and free market forces will be allowed to again
express themselves.  I believe that a double dip is coming and that the market is forming a classic "head
and shoulders" top now(8-15-10).  I further believe that the previous lows will be at least tested.
I am buying inverse funds on retail and commercial real estate.  
I may trade some puts if I feel more confident about timing.  


The interest on the debt alone now exceeds the "on budget" expenditures for the National Defense.  
Our total debt including government, corporate and private is now 3.5 times the GDP.  And that does not
include the $6.5T debt liability of Fanny and Freddie that is backed by the "full faith and credit of the
United States Government"
Nor, does it include the ~$50T unfunded liabilities of Social Security, Medicare and  Medicade.  

At the current 10 year treasury rate of 4.56%............lower now.
the simple interest on $11.9T = $543B (interest only)
/ 300M people =  $1808 / person (man, woman & child)

Now consider the fact that Albert Einstein regarded compound interest as the 8th wonder of the world.  
You will acknowledge that these rates are at record lows.
The interest rate on our debt is likely to increase in the near future and our triple A bond rating is on the
verge of a downgrade due to our projected deficits.  
Our biggest group of taxpayers are retiring and expecting to collect Social Security.  

Our government deficit expenditures are expanding and there is no plan to reverse the trend of an ever
increasing debt.  

This story has been told many times before around the world from Argentina to Zimbabwe.  The best
contemporary example is the USSR; well maybe Greece and the PIIGS.  It begins with economic and
currency collapse followed by social collapse, anarchy and marshal law.  
There is no happy ending.  

SO WHAT CAN I DO ?

Let us not talk falsely now............  The hour is getting late.

Without our economic strength, we are helpless.  
And history shows us the proven method to increase revenue and reduce expenses.

    1.  Reduce Federal taxes with holding guidelines.  
    2.  Reduce or eliminate Capital Gains.
    3.  Cut government Regulations
    4.  Cut government Spending

I am advising my friends to sell their stock market assets and put their savings in real property such as
sustainable real estate and precious metals.  
I am anticipating a further real estate collapse and associated currency deflation followed by inflation.  
There are and will still be ample opportunities for enterprise in the underground economy.

..............Vote Tuesday